我国“双反”措施的产业救济效果与福利效应——基于可计算局部均衡COMPAS模型的研究

本文利用可计算局部均衡COMPAS模型,基于2005～2009年我国鸡肉产品生产与进口的有关数据,就我国对美国白羽肉鸡产品反倾销、反补贴税的产业救济效果、福利效应等进行了实证模拟。模拟结果表明:在未来5年里,我国对美国白羽肉鸡产品的反倾销、反补贴税将使我国白羽肉鸡行业的产量和就业增加近26%,销售收入增加38.4%;但是,"双反"措施也将导致我国市场鸡肉价格大约上涨9.8%,消费量下降2.8%,消费者福利损失近10亿美元。

Industry Remedy and Welfare Effects of China's Anti-dumping and Countervailing Measures: A Research Based on COMPAS Model

By using the data of production and trade of chicken products of China from 2005 to 2009 and Commercial Policy Analysis System(COMPAS) model,this paper analyses how China’s anti-dumping and countervailing measures against white feather chicken products from USA would affect the production,employment and welfare at the industry level.The results of simulation show that: in the next 5 years,the implementation of anti-dumping and countervailing duties will make China’s white feather chicken industry’s output and employment increase by nearly 26%,sales revenue increase by 38.4%;However,the measures will also raise the chicken prices in China’s market by 9.8%,and the consumption will fall by 2.8%,consumer welfare will lose by nearly 10 billion U.S.dollars.Based on the research conclusions,the paper concludes some policy recommendations.