要素禀赋结构、技术选择与中国城市现代产业发展

本文基于地理加权回归(GWR)模型对我国286个城市现代产业的发展格局进行了考察。研究发现,我国城市现代产业发展的格局与区域经济格局高度吻合,并且区域内发展差异小于区域间差异。通过三种常用空间权重及技术选择指数TCI的实证研究发现,总体上,我国城市的要素禀赋结构在很大程度上决定了其技术选择,进而对其现代产业的发展绩效产生显著影响。多数城市选择了偏离比较优势的现代产业发展政策,而这种政策的偏离程度和所负担的政策成本在四大区域间不尽一致,这是值得高度关注的问题。对于城市政府而言,在现代产业发展决策及相关政策制定方面,如何促进要素禀赋结构升级比直接"培育"现代产业更为重要。

Factor Endowment Structure, Technological Choice and the Development of Modern Industry in Chinese Cities

Based on the model of Geographical Weighted Regression,this paper researches the development pattern of modern industry in 286 cities of China.The results show that the development pattern of modern industry is highly coupled with that of regional economic development,and the divergence of modern industry development within one region is much smaller than that among regions.By using of three common spatial weights and the core variable ’TCI’,our empirical study also find that technological choice is largely determined by factor endowment structure,and thus doing a significant impact on development level of modern industry in Chinese cities.It is worthy of attention that most cities have chosen comparative-advantages-defying strategy to develop modern industrial,and the degrees of deviation and policy costs are not the same among the four regions.For municipal governments,upgrading the structure of factor endowments is even more significant than cultivating modern industrial directly.