南宁市城市化与南亚热带农业协调测度分析及动态预测

目的]测度城市化与农业发展协调性、分析其演化状态,可为农业高效利用城市化发展优势与优化农业生态系统提供参考。方法]构建城市化与南亚热带农业复合系统协调测度指标体系,运用定量集成测度方法,对2002—2016年南宁市城市化与南亚热带农业协调演进状态进行测度、判定、分析及动态预测。结果]复合系统经历了"濒临失调、勉强协调、初级协调、中级协调、良好协调"5个发展阶段,协调发展度以年均4.76%的速率增长。2007年以来,城市化综合效益超前,热带农业相对滞后;两大子系统同步性显著,相关系数为0.964 9,均呈现上升趋势;2017—2021年,两大子系统相关系数升至0.968 7,各综合效益递增,其差距由0.232 1缩小至0.173 2。结论]城市化与南亚热带农业两大子系统呈高度正相关,效益系数上升趋势显著,协调发展正向演替;当前,复合系统处于良好协调类城市化超前——南亚热带农业滞后型发展阶段;未来5年,两大子系统综合效益差值渐趋缩小,南亚热带农业对于城市化水平提升的贡献能力日益增强。

COORDINATION MEASURE ANALYSIS AND DYNAMICALLY PREDICT OF URBANIZATION AND SOUTH SUBTROPICAL AGRICULTURAL IN NANNING CITY

The purpose of this paper is to measure the coordinated development between urbanization and agriculture and analyze its evolutionary process, so as to provide references for the efficient utilization of advantages of urbanization development and optimization of agricultural ecosystems in urban areas. The coordinated measurement index system of the urbanization and south subtropical agricultural composite system was constructed, and the quantitative integrated measurement method was used to measure, judge, analyze, and dynamically predict the coordinated evolution process of urbanization and south subtropical agriculture in Nanning City from 2002 to 2016. The urbanization and south subtropical agricultural composite system in Nanning had experienced five development stages, namely "on the verge of imbalance, barely coordinated, primary coordination, intermediate coordination, and good coordination", and the degree of coordinated development increased at an average annual rate of 4.76%. Since 2007, the comprehensive benefits of urbanization subsystem in Nanning City had pulled ahead, but the tropical agricultural subsystem had lagged behind; the synchronization between urbanization subsystem and south subtropical agricultural subsystem was significant, with a correlation coefficient of 0.964 9, exhibiting an upward trend; it was estimated that from 2017 to 2021 the correlation coefficient between the urbanization subsystem and south subtropical agricultural subsystem would rise to 0.968 7, and the comprehensive benefits would also increase. The gap between these two subsystems would narrow from 0.232 083 to 0.173 199. There is a significant positive correlation between the urbanization subsystem and south subtropical agriculture subsystem in Nanning city, and the benefit coefficient increases significantly, indicating that the coordinated development is evolving in a positive direction. At present, the urbanization and the south subtropical agriculture composite system in Nanning city is the coordinated development stage with leading urbanization and lagging south subtropical agriculture; in the next 5 years, the gap between the comprehensive benefits of these two sub systems in Nanning city will gradually narrow, and the contribution capacity of south subtropical agriculture to the improvement of urbanization level will increase.