河西走廊旅游经济空间差异及其演化趋势

目的]研究河西走廊各地区内旅游资源禀赋、地域之间的空间差异以及未来演化趋势,将有助于认识该区域旅游经济所处的空间层次及未来定位。方法]以甘肃省河西走廊5市为样本,运用变异系数、地理集中指数、赫芬达尔指数、区位熵等指标和偏离—份额分析法,实证分析了2013—2017年河西走廊旅游经济在时空上的总体和地区间的差异,运用R/S分析法,探讨了未来河西走廊各城市旅游经济的演化趋势。结果]2013年以来,河西走廊旅游经济总体空间分布极不均衡,相对差异呈现出逐年缩小态势,旅游地理集中度趋于两级分化,市场集中度处于低位分散状态,旅游业自身的内部增长动力决定了各地区旅游产业的整体能力,旅游经济总体上未来演化趋势与过去的增长变化将在长期内正相关。结论]具有明显比较优势、资源唯一且不可复制的地区,将在长期内保持持续性很强的增长趋势,但河西走廊旅游业整体仍处于后发地区赶超潜力待挖掘的阶段,有必要形成便捷的旅游经济带,提高整体旅游经济竞争力。

THE SPATIAL DIFFERENCE AND EVOLUTIONARY TREND OF TOURISM ECONOMY IN HEXI CORRIDOR

The study for the tourism resources endowment, spatial differences and future evolution trend in different regions of Hexi Corridor will be helpful to understand the spatial level and future orientation of tourism economy in this region. Taking five cities in Hexi Corridor of Gansu province as samples, this paper empirically studied the spatial and temporal differences of tourism economy in Hexi Corridor from 2013 to 2017 by using variability coefficient, geographic concentration index, Hefendal index, location entropy and deviation share analysis method, and discussed the evolutionary trend of tourism economy in every city of Hexi Corridor by using R/S analysis method. The results showed that since 2013, the overall spatial distribution of tourism economy in Hexi Corridor had been extremely uneven, the relative differences had been decreasing year by year, the geographical concentration of tourism tended to be two level differentiation, the market concentration was in a low decentralized state, and the internal growth of tourism determined the overall capacity of tourism industry in each region. The future evolutionary trend of tourism economy will be positively correlated with the past growth changes in the long run, both of which have the characteristics of sustained growth. Areas with obvious comparative advantages, unique resources and non replicable will maintain a strong and sustained growth trend in the long run, but the overall tourism industry in Hexi Corridor is still in the stage of catching up the potential in the late developing areas. It is necessary to give play to the radiation effect of tourism preferred areas, form a convenient tourism economic belt, and improve the overall tourism economic competitiveness of Hexi Corridor.