环境库兹涅茨曲线假说检验研究进展与展望

[目的]EKC曲线描述的是生态环境质量随着经济增长呈现先恶化后改善的趋势,即存在倒“U”型关系。为了了解EKC假设检验目前研究现状与存在的主要问题,深入探讨未来研究重点和方向。[方法]系统梳理经济发展对生态环境质量影响的EKC假说检验文献,以期丰富EKC检验的理论基础,进一步促进经济、生态环境健康持续发展。[结果]各种污染物指标与人均GDP间呈现出倒“U”型、正“U”型、倒“N”型、线型(或“~”型)等多种关系。[结论]未来研究重点和方向是:(1)研究形成EKC曲线背后的作用机理;(2)合理构建反映整体生态环境质量综合指标及影响经济发展的多因素指标;(3)合理构建经济发展与生态环境相互作用的理论模型,并在研究中引入综合方法;运用空间计量模型实证检验EKC假说;(4)国内对小城镇和欠发达地区经济发展对生态环境影响的EKC假说检验。

RESEARCH PROGRESS AND IMPLICATION ABOUT HYPOTHESIS TEST OF ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE

The EKC curve(Environmental Kuznets Curve)describes the tendency of ecological environment quality to deteriorate first and then improve with economic growth,that is,there is an inverted"U"relationship.This research aims to understand the current research status and main problems of the EKC hypothesis test,the future research focus and direction are discussed in depth.The EKC hypothesis test literature on the impact of economic development on the quality of the ecological environment was systematically sorted out in order to enrich the theoretical basis of the EKC test and further promoted the healthy and sustainable development of the economy and the ecological environment.The research showed that various pollutant indexes and per capita GDP showed various relationships such as inverted"U"type,positive"U"type,inverted"N"type,and linear(or"~"type).Future research focuses and directions are showed as follows.Firstly,study the mechanism behind the formation of the EKC curve.Secondly,rationally construct comprehensive indicators reflecting the overall ecological environment quality and multi-factor indicators that affect economic development.Thirdly,reasonably construct the interaction theoretical model of the economic development and ecological environment,and introduced a comprehensive approach to the research,the EKC hypothesis is empirically tested by using spatial econometric models.Finally,the EKC hypothesis test on the impact of economic development on the ecological environment in small towns and underdeveloped areas in China.