技术创新对中国外贸发展方式转变影响的实证研究

在分析1990年以来中国外贸发展方式转变状况的基础上,用协整检验和脉冲响应函数实证分析技术创新对外贸发展方式转变的影响。结果表明:技术创新是影响中国外贸发展方式转变的最主要因素,技术创新变量每增加1个百分点,外贸发展方式转变水平最大将提高1.91个单位;R&D投入强度对外贸发展方式转变过程中出现的波动性解释程度最大,达到56.33%,远大于其它因素的解释程度。因此,转变中国外贸发展方式,必须加快技术创新步伐,尤其要加大R&D投入。

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Technology Innovation on China's Foreign Trade Development Pattern Conversion

Based on the analysis of China′s foreign trade development pattern from 1990, using co-integration and Impulse Response Function, the paper analyzes the impact of technological innovation on the change of foreign trade development pattern. The results show: technological innovation is the most significant factor that affect the conversion of foreign trade development pattern, wherein technological innovation factors increase 1 percent, the level of foreign trade development pattern conversion will increase upmost 1.91 units; R&D input intensity well explains the fluctuations of foreign trade development pattern conversion, which accounts for 56.33%, much larger than the degree of the interpretation of all other factors. Therefore, in order to change foreign trade development pattern, we must accelerate the pace of technological innovation, especially to increase the investment of R & D.