胎次-激化双重效应:中国生育政策与出生性别比关系的理论构建与实证研究

通过构建“胎次-激化双重效应”理论模型，解读生育政策与出生性另q比关联的潜在机制，并利用宏观数据予以检验。政策与出生性别比的失衡存在直接和间接双重关系；生育政策的刚性制约和一孩半生育政策赋予胎次和激化效应特殊含义：（1）一孩政策地区低胎的出生性别比偏高、一孩半政策地区二胎及以上胎次的出生性别比极度失衡，显现“激化效应”；（2）政策的多样性使部分低位女胎与男胎一样受欢迎，使一孩半政策及二孩政策地区低胎的出生性别比趋于正常，产生“胎次效应”。可见，政策越强，低位和高位女胎都不受重视，均会遭遇人工流产；相反，在相对宽松的政策环境下，低位女胎所受的歧视程度相对减弱。

Parity-Intensification Effect:Birth Planning Policy and Sex Ratio at Birth in China

This paper attempts to propose a conceptual framework,the parity-intensification effect model,to explain the relationship between fertility policy and the sex ratio at birth,and uses macro data to test this framework.Analytical results indicate that,compared with the same order birth in other policy areas,the sex ratio at birth of the first birth in strict one-child policy and the second or higher-order births in one-and-half child policy area is more skewed,and that the sex ratio at birth of the first birt...