Terrorism,Seasonality, and International Air Tourist Arrivals in Central Florida

The Orlando International Airport (OIA) is growing in its importance in the regional tourism of Central Florida. This study provides some explanation for the fast growth of the OIA international passenger traffic by developing a multiple regression model. Five variables are identified as significantly related to the passenger arrivals at the OIA. The positive relationship between the economic performance of other industrialized countries and the OIA international arrivals is consistence with the hypothesis that income is positive determinant in travel decision. The increasing hijacking incidents in Europe and the Middle East is found to have a destination substitution effect between Orlando and European/Middle East. Hijacking may have encouraged Canadian and European tourist to switch from European/Middle East destinations to the United States in general, and to Orlando in particular. The composite tourism supply variable, represented by the number of Orlando hotel/model rooms, is found to be positively related to the OIA international arrivals. The two dummy variables of seasonality represent the natural component of the tourism supply of Orlando, its pleasant winter and early spring sunshine. The model indicates that this natural factor contributes significantly to the international passenger arrivals.