| 基于Gompertz模型的中国民用汽车保有量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 古继宝,亓芳芳,吴剑琳.基于Gompertz模型的中国民用汽车保有量预测[J].技术经济,2010,29(1):57-62. |
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| 作者姓名： | 古继宝 亓芳芳 吴剑琳 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学技术大学,合肥,230026 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院预测科学研究中心资助项目(2008) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文采用我国31个省(市)的面板数据,利用Gompertz模型对我国各省(市)民用汽车保有量和拐点进行了预测。结果表明:Gompertz模型能很好地拟合我国各省市的民用汽车发展趋势;北京、浙江、内蒙古的民用汽车保有量的人均收入弹性已接近最大,其他各省的收入弹性仍然在不断地增长;理想估计下,大部分省市的汽车保有量将在2015—2020年之间达到拐点;2015年全国的民用汽车保有量将会突破1.28亿辆,2020年将达到2.19亿辆。
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| 关 键 词： | 面板数据 民用汽车保有量 Gompertz模型 |
Forecasting on China's Civil Automobile-owned Based on Gompertz Model |
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| Gu Jibao,Qi Fangfang,Wu Jianlin.Forecasting on China's Civil Automobile-owned Based on Gompertz Model[J].Technology Economics,2010,29(1):57-62. |
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| Authors: | Gu Jibao Qi Fangfang Wu Jianlin |
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| Institution: | School of Management/a>;University of Science and Technology of China/a>;Hefei 230026/a>;China |
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| Abstract: | This paper uses the Gompertz model and the panel data to forecast national and provincial civil automobile-owned.The results show that:Gompertz model fits well the development trend of civil automobile-owned of all provinces;the per capita income elasticity of civil automobile-owned in Beijing,Zhejiang and Neimenggu are close to the largest,while that of other provinces is constantly growing;according to the ideal estimate,most of provinces will get the turning point in the years of 2015-2020;the model pred... |
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| Keywords: | panel data civil automobile-owned Gompertz model |
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