考虑DSM实施效果的工业园区中长期负荷预测

工业园区作为区域经济发展的重点,对于促进我国区域经济的发展具有重要意义。本文结合当前工业园区的发展现状、需求侧管理的实施及"十二五"期间提出的节能减排目标,介绍了需求侧管理对工业园区电力负荷预测的影响。将需求侧管理的实施效果、工业园区年产值与固定资产投资总额作为影响工业园区中长期负荷预测的三个变量,采用回归分析的方法,建立工业园区中长期负荷预测模型。通过算例分析,说明了回归分析预测的有效性,以及需求侧管理的实施效果应作为负荷预测的影响因素。

Medium-and Long-Term Load Forecasting of Industrial Park Considering Demand Side Management

Industrial park has an important role in promoting the development of economy in China. Considering the situation of industrial park, demand side management and the energy conservation and emission reduction made during the year of 2011-2015, this paper introduced the influences of DSM on load forecasting. This model made the effect of DSM, annual production value and total fixed asset investment as the three variables of the load forecasting model. The model applys to regression analysis method. The calculation example shows the significance of the model. The influence factors of the load forecast should consider the effects of DSM.