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The Economic Impact of Herd Behavior in the Japanese Loan Market
Authors:Ryuichi Nakagawa  Hidekazu Oiwa  Fumiko Takeda
Institution:1. Faculty of Economics, Kansai University, 3-3-35 Yamate, Suita, Osaka, 564–8680 Japan;2. Department of Mathematical Informatics, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113–8656 Japan;3. Department of Technology Management for Innovation, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113–8656 Japan
Abstract:This paper investigates whether inefficient herd behavior of Japanese financial institutions in the domestic loan market affected the real economy during the period between 1975 and 1999. By using Japanese loan data, arranged by geographical area, we show that loans stemming from inefficient herd behavior of Japanese financial institutions tended to have destabilizing effects on the GDP and land prices in the following years, while ordinary loans of those financial institutions had a more positive impact. Our results indicate that the deterioration of the real economy in the 1990s may have been attributable partly to the inefficient herd behavior in the Japanese loan market during the period of the economic bubble in the late 1980s.
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