我国跨境资本流动:演变历程、潜在风险及管理建议

自2015年起,我国跨境资本结束此前的单边净流入,进入了双向流动状态。本文首先梳理了2015年后我国跨境资本流动变化的特点:2015-2016年,跨境资本大规模流出;2017年形势逆转,跨境资本转为净流入;2018年跨境资本流动整体稳定,但下半年开始资本流出。其次,对不同阶段资本流动的特点和渠道进行了分析。然后结合国内外形势,剖析了我国在跨境资本流动方面面临的潜在风险来源,如外部不确定性因素扰动、市场结构尚未完善引致的跨境资本短期化以及中国扩大金融开放放大跨境资本流动冲击这三个方面。最后,本文针对我国跨境资本流动管理提出了相应的建议,整体上构建"宏观审慎"与"微观监管"一体化的跨境资本流动管理框架,但在非常时期可采取适当的跨境资本流动管理措施,同时要强化各国间的政策与管理措施协调合作。

Cross-border Capital Flows in China: Evolution,Potential Risks and Management Suggestions

Beginning in 2015,China's cross-border capital has ended its previous unilateral net inflow and entered a two-way flow.Firstly,this paper reviews the changes of cross-border capital flows in China after 2015.From 2015 to 2016,large-scale cross-border capital outflows occurred.Until 2017,the situation was reversed,cross-border capital inflows turned to net inflows,and cross-border capital flows remained stable as a whole in 2018,but the risk of capital outflows began to rise in the second half of the year.This paper analyses the characteristics and channels of capital flow in different stages.Then,this paper combines the current internal and external situation to analyze the potential risks of cross-border capital flows in China.The risks mainly come from the disturbance of external uncertainties,the short-term cross-border capital caused by imperfect market structure,and the expansion of China's financial openness to magnify the impact of cross-border capital flows.Finally,this paper puts forward corresponding suggestions for the management of cross-border capital flows in China:to construct a management framework of crossborder capital flows that integrates macro-prudential and micro-prudential as a whole,but in the abnormal period,appropriate management measures of cross-border capital flows can be taken,and at the same time,coordination and cooperation between international policies and management measures should be strengthened.