短期国内外经济冲击对浙江出口贸易的脉冲效果分析

源于美国次贷危机引致世界经济发展减速、国外需求减少、国内生产要素价格上涨及人民币升值等一系列国内外因素的集中影响,浙江省出口贸易呈现增速下滑态势。本文基于月度数据,通过向量自回归理论的脉冲响应函数,选择短期国内外经济冲击对浙江省出口贸易影响的主要因素建立冲击反应模型,实证分析了各种因素对浙江出口的冲击效果,并利用方差分解技术分析了其影响程度。结果显示:银行贷款、进口及贸易伙伴国收入对浙江出口的冲击效果非常显著。而解决问题的基本思路为加强国际经济合作共度金融危机,分散市场风险,加大对中小民营出口企业的财政支持及适度扩大进口。

On Impulse Effect of Short-run Economic Shocks on Zhejiang Export

Under the centralized influence from a series of domestic and oversea factors:slow-down of world economy owing to American subprime mortgage crisis,declining in foreign demand,rising price of domestic producing materials,RMB appreciation and so on,Zhejiang export faces the declining trend on growth rate.By using impulse-response function based on VAR theory and setting up a shock-response model of the main short-run effect factors on Zhejiang export,this paper uses monthly data to analyze empirically the im...