开放经济中的价格传递效应:中国的例证

本文建立了一个分析新开放宏观经济学模型(NOEM),并在此基础上检验了内生货币政策在价格传递机制中所发挥的制约作用,以此鉴别中国"通缩输出论"的真伪性。我们得到两个重要的政策结论。首先,中国"通缩输出论"的基础是传统的"支出转移效应",但忽略了进出口企业的定价能力等微观要素。这种主张不符合数据反映的现实情况。其次,一国的货币政策可以制约汇率和外国价格对本国价格的传递效应,这一特点是现有的价格传递效应理论所没有涉及的新机制,它的作用在美国表现得尤为突出。

THE PRICE PASS-THROUGH EFFECT ACROSS THE NATIONAL BORDER:AN EXAMPLE OF CHINA

This paper builds an NOEM model to study the price pass-through effect acrossthe national border. Based on the theory we test whether endogenous monetary rules have a signif-icant influence on the pass-through effect using Chinese data. Our results have shown that there isno evidence to support the assessment that China exports deflation to the rest of the world. In ad-dition, we find that one country's monetary policy can restrict the pass-through effect.