中国外汇冲销干预和货币政策独立性研究

2002年以来,中国国际收支"双顺差"加剧,外汇储备急剧增长,货币供应量增长,通货膨胀压力凸现。为了稳定人民币汇率和抑制通货膨胀,中央银行采取了一系列外汇冲销干预措施。文章在分析外汇冲销干预有效性理论的基础上,分析外汇储备急剧增长下外汇冲销干预的效力和制约因素,认为外汇冲销干预短期内能抵消外汇占款、控制信贷增长,但效力有限;在长期内,外汇冲销干预不仅会影响货币政策独立性,还可能导致通货膨胀、利率上升、汇率升值乃至经济"滞胀",因而难以具有可持续性,最后,文章提出加强外汇储备管理,增强外汇冲销干预效力和货币政策独立性的政策建议。

A Study on China's Foreign Exchange Reserves,Sterilized Intervention,and Monetary Policy Independence

Since 2002,"Twin Surpluses"(Current Account Surplus and Capital Account Surplus) have increased drastically in China's Balance of Payment.Foreign exchange reserves and money supply have been increasing in a big margin,leading to tangible inflation pressure.In order to stabilize RMB exchange rate and avoid inflation,the People's Bank of China has taken a series of measures to sterilize the passively expanded money supply.The paper investigates the efficacy and sustainability of sterilized intervention on the basis of the analysis of the theories related to sterilized intervention efficacy,suggesting that sterilized intervention is effective in offsetting the position for Forex purchase and curbing bank credit growth in the short run,but in the long run,sterilization will lower monetary policy independence,also will perhaps lead to inflation,high interest rate,exchange rate appreciation and even "stagflation",so sterilized intervention is unsustainable.In the end,the paper puts forward some suggestions for improving the sterilization efficacy and of monetary policy independence.