| Abstract: | Everyone wishes to know what the future holds; to understand the problems ahead so that they may be able to effectively manage possible future adverse events. This need to know and to understand the future is no less real now than it has ever been, and this is particularly true of groups, organizations and institutions, which, in a world of considerable flux, feel particularly vulnerable if they are not aware of the vital forces at work affecting their own fortunes. Consequently, a number of attempts have been made in the recent past to develop ways to become better informed about particular futures for specific needs. These improvements in ways of looking at the future will inevitably continue to develop. Organizational plans will become increasingly dependent upon such studies, and management, particularly R&D management, will need to be able to judge the value of such studies carried out on its behalf just as informed management attempts to assess, for example, the value of economic, market, manpower or raw materials forecasts. The intended purpose of this paper is to reduce some of the ‘futures studies’ mystique and to provide management with a feel for what can be done now as a result of forward thinking. That is, the intention is: —to introduce the concept of a futures study (why forecast?); —to suggest what it should encompass (what to ask for); —to describe some of the more useful methods together with suggested advantages and disadvantages (what are the tools?); —to recommend the type of analysis of a futures study which generates maximum effectiveness in the planning process. It is worth repeating that the emphasis in this paper is placed upon the use to which a good futures study can be put, if effectively commissioned, analysed and implemented. |
