中国市区县级TFP变动问题的讨论：2007~2010年

通过使用DEA-Malmquist方法与Kumbhakar-Sun方法（KSM），测算了中国2543个市区县（含港澳台）在2007～2010年的TFP变动情况，认为中国各市区县的TFP在考察期内以年均6.20%（DEA-Malmquist）和8.20%（KSM）的速度下降。从空间分布上看，东部地区呈现TFP增长态势的大多数都是城市市区，零散的分布在各地；西部地区虽然存在TFP连片增长地带，但大多是地广人稀地区。从方法上讲，DEA-Malmquist和KSM在TFP变动测算结论上接近，但对TFP变动的分解结论有很大出入。最后，尽管市区县级数据存在一定程度的夸大问题，TFP变动与固定资本存量变动之间的负相关性仍然被非常明显的观测到，中国的经济增长模式可能正在面临严峻挑战。

A Discussion of China's county-level TFP change in the period of 2007 to 2010

The TFP change in the period of 2007 to 2010 of 2543 county-level unit (include Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) is measured by DEA-Malmquist Method and Kumbhakar-Sun Method (KSM), the average of TFP decline rate for is 6.20% and 8.20% respectively. In the spatial perspective, the region with TFP increasing usually are urban districts in the eastern China which are scattered, and the region with TFP increasing are contiguous in the western China which are sparsely populated. Although DEA-Malmquist and KSM give similar results in TFP change, the results in components of TFP changes' decomposition are opposite. Finally, although there are exaggerated data in county-level statistics, the negative correlation between TFP change and fixed capital stock change can be observed, the economic growth mode in China may face serious challenge.