城市土地市场调控政策工具的时滞研究——以武汉市为例

研究目的:分析城市土地市场调控政策工具时滞的类型及其产生,研究土地供给控制政策工具对商品房上市的时滞效应。研究方法:多项式分布滞后模型和实证分析法。研究结果:发现土地供给控制政策工具的时滞:(1)效应显著;(2)持续长;(3)影响市场运行;(4)具有正负向作用。研究结论:调控政策工具的时滞与传导机制和市场主体的预期等因素密切相关,应当进行相应调整。

Time-Lag Effect of Urban Land Market Regulations:A Case of Wuhan City

The purposes of this paper are to analyze the category and the reasons for the time-lag effects of urban land market regulations,and explore the impacts of the time-lag effect on the commercial housing supply.Method of polynomial distribution lag model was employed.The results indicate there exists some characters of the time-lag effects of land supply regulations,which are:(1)effect is significant;(2)long-term continuity;(3)with influences on market operation;(4)playing both positive and negative roles.It ...