中国能源消费与经济关系分析

足够的能源供应是经济可持续发展的基础。1952～2004年中国能源强度值在经历了长期而波动的高值状态后,从1977年开始逐年下降,能源强度值在1991年降至0.30tce/103yuan水平以下,到2004年仅为0.16tce/103yuan。作者分析了影响中国能源消费总量、GDP、能源强度值变化的因素,通过对各产业能源强度、中外能源强度、中外能源消费结构、中外产业结构对比,揭示了第二产业能源强度值过高及其过半的产业比重、以煤炭为主的能源消费结构都是中国能源强度值过高的根本原因。但是通过对各产业对经济增长的贡献分析,发现第二产业对经济增长的贡献强度要强于第三产业。因此,作者指出,在以经济目标为首要任务的现阶段,解决能源与经济的可持续发展的重点应放在第二产业能源强度值的降低,以及第二产业向第三产业的适当转移。

Analysis on the Relationship between Total Energy Consumption and Economic

Enough energy supply is the base of sustainable development of economy.After a long time fluctuation and higher level of energy intensity,it had begun decreasing from 1977.Energy intensity was less than 0.30tce/103yuan from 1991,and decreased to 0.16tce/103yuan in 2004.The authors discussed the factors that impacted the change of total energy consumption,GDP and energy intensity.The authors compared energy intensity between different industries of China,compared energy intensity,composition of energy consumption and different industries between different countries and China.The results show that energy intensity of China's secondary industry was higher than those of others'industries,and that the energy consumption was mainly dependent on coal and the proportion of secondary industry was more than 50%.These were the reasons why energy intensity of China was higher than other countries.The comparisons of the contributions of different industries to GDP show that the contribution intensity of secondary industry was stronger than those of other industries.So that,the authors put forward that because the economy is the most important goal in China at present,the key of sustainable development between energy and economy is to lower the energy intensity of secondary industry and to transfer the secondary industry to tertiary industry moderately.