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Phillips curve in US: New insights in time and frequency
Authors:Mihai Mutascu
Institution:ESCE International Business School Paris, 10 Sexius Michel, 75015 Paris, France
Abstract:The paper explores the co-movement between unemployment and inflation rates in US by using a battery of wavelet tools. The dataset covers the period 1945Q1–2017Q4, having quarterly frequency.The main findings reveal a not stable Phillips curve in US, depending on economic context, seasonality and time-persistence. The Phillips curve is not validated during economic turbulences, while it works over expansion economic periods. Even so, the trade-off between unemployment and inflation is unstable under seasonal growth components and time-persistence, running from short- to medium-term. No link between unemployment and inflation is found in the long-term.
Keywords:Unemployment  Inflation  Phillips curve effect  Wavelet  US  E24  E31  C14
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