后金融危机时期我国工农业乘数效应研究*

本文基于两部门经济增长模型构建工农业内生增长模型，考虑了工业与农业生产率差异和工农业溢出效应,分析在有限的资源条件下工业部门资源配置优势以及全社会经济增长影响因素。研究发现：工业部门因其生产率优势、溢出效应而具有资源配置优势，但农业发展滞后也会限制工业资源配置优势扩大；同时，全社会经济增长受工业增长、工业对农业溢出效应及农业增长共同影响。因此，工农业既存在资源竞争，又存在协调发展需要。

STUDY ON THE MULTIPLIER EFFECT OF INDUSTRY AND AGRICULTUREIN THE POST FINANCIAL CRISIS PERIOD IN CHINA

This paper based on the two sector economic growth model to test the spillover effects of industrial and agriculturalIt is found that the industrial sector has the advantage of resource allocation because of the advantages of its productivity, spillover effect, but the underdevelopment of agriculture will also limit the expansion of industrial resources allocationThe whole social economic growth is affected by industrial growth, industrial and agricultural spillover effects, and agricultural growthTherefore, there is a need for industrial and agricultural cooperative developmentWe use the method of 2SLS estimation, GMM estimation and quantile regression robustness test.