路径依赖、市场进入与资源型城市转型*

资源型城市因资源而兴，但也面临转型“困境”。本文试图以经验数据证明资源型城市存在路径依赖，并分析路径依赖效应阻碍资源型经济转型的作用机理。本文研究表明，路径依赖效应通过技术与制度“双重锁定”，在经济快速增长的掩饰下“侵蚀”资源型城市产业结构升级的内生动力；在资源枯竭时期，路径依赖效应会导致城市丧失快速发展资源替代性产业的能力，严重的结构性失业、生态环境破坏以及基础设施落后使城市陷入转型“困境”，单纯市场调节很难实现资源型城市产业结构的自我修复，政府管理在产业布局中的作用显得更加重要；突破路径依赖的关键在于新企业的“市场进入”与地区人力资本水平的提升，有利于打破路径依赖锁定，推动资源禀赋优势向其他要素禀赋优势转化，使资源型城市突破路径锁定，实现转型。

PATH DEPENDENCE,MARKET ENTRY AND TRANSFORMATION OF RESOURCES BASED CITY

This paper using empirical data attempted to prove the existence of path dependence in resource based cities, and then analyzed the mechanism of path dependence and its influence on regional economic transformation. Analysis showed that the path dependent effects erode endogenous motivation of industrial structure through technical and institutional “double lock” during the rapid economic growth period. Labor quality and low level of human capital, the lag development of alternative industry, all those factors lead to serious structural unemployment in resource exhausted period. The optional way of transformation is to prompt market entry in consideration of regional driving factors, to break the path dependence, and to drive to change comparative advantage from resource endowment to other endowment. Comparing with the inefficient research investment, human capital play more important role in city transformation. Serious external problems and path dependent effect make government management more important to industry development in resource exhausted cities.