人民币实际汇率调整趋势与中国经济转型

1978年以来的人民币实际汇率呈现出长期的贬值态势,本文结合中国经济改革的历程深入分析了实际汇率贬值的内在机制,认为市场化进程中的制度变迁和技术进步是其根本原因。而目前经济的内外失衡所引发的实际汇率和名义汇率的升值压力,本质上是深层次市场化改革推进受阻后经济结构扭曲的外在表现。本文认为,以汇率形成机制改革为主要内容的名义的市场化改革只能缓解而无法根除这种压力,推行土地、劳动力和自然资源等要素价格在内的实际的市场改革才是纠正内外失衡,缓解汇率升值压力的治本之道。

The Adjustment in the Real Exchange Rate of RMB and China's Economic Transition

Since 1978,the RMB real exchange rate has shown a long-term depreciation trend.Based on the analysis of China's economic reform process,this paper shed light on the internal mechanisms of the real exchange rate depreciation,and argued this phenomenon could be contributed to the institutional change and technological progress during the reform,instead of so-called manipulation.In addition,current internal and external economic imbalances are essentially caused by the distorted economic structure.This article believes that in order to alleviate the appreciation pressure on RMB,the best choice is to implement in-depth reforms in factor markets,such as land,labor and natural resources market.