The dynamics of modal split for freight transport |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Civil Engineering – Transportation Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario M5S1A4, Canada;2. School of Urban Planning, McGill University, Suite 400, 815 Sherbrooke St. W., Montréal, Québec H3A 0C2, Canada;1. KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden;2. KU Leuven, Belgium;3. VTI Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Sweden;1. Universiteit Hasselt, Campus Diepenbeek, Agoralaan Gebouw D, 3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium;2. Research Foundation Flanders (FWO), Egmontstraat 5, 1000 Brussels, Belgium;3. University of Liege (ULg), HEC Management School, QuantOM, Rue Louvrex 14 (N1), 4000 Liège, Belgium;4. Vrije Universiteit Brussel, MOBI, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium;5. Université de Liège, LEMA, 1 Chemin des Chevreuils B52/3, 4000 Liège, Belgium;1. School of Industrial Engineering, Operations, Planning, Accounting and Control, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, The Netherlands;2. School of Management and Centre for Operational Research, Management Science and Information Systems, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom |
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| Abstract: | The paper presents a dynamic model of modal split in a multimodal freight transport system, which supposes that the evolution over time of transport demand is accompanied by a corresponding evolution of transport modes, and that users react with delay to cost variations. Starting with these hypotheses, and following the paradigm of random utility, a recursive equation is obtained, whose iterated application furnishes the sequence of the demand fractions on the various transport modes in the successive epochs of the time period during which the evolution of the transport system is studied and enables forecasting the future modal split evolution. |
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| Keywords: | Freight transport Modal split evolution Dynamic choice models Dynamic cost functions |
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