住宅投资与经济周期牵扯:自OECD国家生发

我国住宅投资存在住宅投资增长迅速、住宅投资结构和来源地区差异明显,以及住宅投资的波动较大三个特征。从国际横向对比、住房自有率和整体空置率、住宅资本和非住宅资本收益率三个维度探讨我国住宅投资规模膨胀问题,进一步研究发现,文化规范、高储蓄率、二元土地制度和租买选择机制的缺失助长了住宅的过度投资。结果表明,我国的住宅投资很可能已经过度,但依然有必要通过大规模的保障房建设来解决住宅供给的结构问题。

The Relationship between Residential Investment and Economic Cycle:Extended from Countries in OECD

There are three features in housing-related investments in China,that are the investments has risen rapidly,the investment structure and regions has obvious differences and the investment fluctuates greatly.The author analyzes the expansion of housing investment in China,in three aspects which are,international comparing,rate of housing owned and whole vacancy rate;returns ratio of housing investment and non-housing investment.By further researches,the author finds that culture standard,high savings rate,dual land system,and shortage of choosing mechanism of renting and buying all foster the over-investment in housing.The results show that the hosing investment in China has probably been excessive,but housing supply structure requires to be solved by constructing large-scale social houses.