城市商业地价指数预测研究--以江苏省镇江市为例

本文以江苏省镇江市为研究区,对商业用地市场交易样点进行选择,采用拉氏公式,计算从1998年到2002年商业地价指数;选取人均国内生产总值、社会销售品零售总额、居民消费价格指数等统计指标,对其进行相关性分析,以此确定影响商业地价指数的自变量。多元线性回归分析表明,社会销售品零售总额、房地产开发投资总额是地价指数的主要影响因素,以此建立了研究区商业地价指数的预测模型。

Forecast of City Land price index with multi-variable regression--Case Study Of Zhenjiang City

This paper is about the forecast of city business land price index. Firstly, the sample of business land which had been exchanged were selected, and the index was calculated in Lashi Frmula. In this,the index of Zhenjiang City from 1997 to 2001were obtained. And then, GDP, Mean GDP, Consume Price Index, and other statistical index were selected, and the Bivariate Correlation Analysis was done between these variable. In the last, some variable which intimate related with land price index were ascertained, and the multi-variable regression indicated that the prime factor which influence the index of business land price were Social Sell Retail Total Amount and Realty Exploitation Amount. In this, the model of business land price index forecast were instauration by multi-variable regression.