出口影响经济增长的机制:外部效应视角的实证考察

本文采用费德的外部效应模型,运用2002-2004年31个省市的相关数据进行实证分析,结果表明,出口部门通过要素边际生产力差异引起的资源重新配置效应和对非出口部门的正外部效应两条渠道促进经济增长。在考虑出口商品结构基础上,应用扩展的费德模型对农产品出口和非农产品出口的外部效应进一步考察发现,农产品出口总体上没有产生外部效应,而非农产品出口则产生了外部效应,存在间接促进经济增长的机制。由上述结论可解读出若干政策含义。

The Effect of Export on China's Economic Growth:An Empirical Study Based on Externality Effect

An empirical study based on Feder's externality effects model with the data of 31 provinces from 2002 to 2004 reveals that export expansion generally has a positive and significant impact on Chinese economic growth through two channels: effect of resource reallocation induced by different marginal productivities of factors and positive externality on non-export sector. Further investigation concerning export composition shows export of different commodities has different export-growth mechanisms. Generally speaking, agricultural export sector has no positive externality effects on non-export sector, but non-agricultural export sector has. Policies are suggested based on the above conclusions.