地方财政收支监测预警研究——以1995—2010年山东省数据为研究样本

文章在界定财政收支监测预警含义的基础上,设计构建了财政收支监测预警系统。以1995-2010年山东省数据为研究样本,通过对比分析综合预警指数走势、财政收支综合评测水平走势和GDP增长率走势,对财政收支监测预警模型的科学性和可行性进行了实证检验。经验证,本模型是可行的,这对监测财政运行情况、保持经济平稳健康发展提供了科学的参考依据。

Research of Monitoring and Early-warning Financial Revenue and Expenditure Based on the Shandong Province Data from 1995 through 2010

Based on defining financial monitoring and early warning, the paper designs and constructs a system of financial monitoring and early warning.Taking the financial data from 1995 to 2010 of Shandong province as the research sample, the paper studies the scientific nature and feasibility of the model according to comparative analysis on the trend of comprehensive early warning indexes, comprehensive evaluation of the level of fiscal revenue and expenditure and growth rate of GDP. This model is feasible and provides a scientific evidence for monitoring financial situation and keeping the economy stable and healthy.