通胀治理效率及其决定因素的实证研究——基于发展中国家的跨国分析

运用Malmquist指数和面板协整方法，测度了39个发展中国家在1995~2010年通胀治理效率，并分析影响通胀治理效率的宏观决定因素及渠道。实证结果发现，大部分发展中国家的通胀治理效率并没有明显改善。在通胀治理效率的决定因素中，货币与财政政策的自主性、汇率弹性、金融自由度等因素既影响政府决策效率，又关乎政策传导效率，从而显著影响发展中国家的通胀治理效率；金融发展因素则主要通过提升政策传导效率影响通胀治理效率；而经济开放对各效率指标的影响都不显著。与其他发展中国家相比，中国注重金融市场的培育并配套相应的金融监管从而享有较高的通胀治理政策传导效率。进一步提升中国通胀治理效率应在增强货币政策和财政政策自主性的同时，提高汇率弹性。

An Empirical Study on Efficiency of Controlling Inflation in Developing Countries

Based on 39 developing countries''panel data, efficiency of controlling inflation and the influencing factors of it in developing countries has been analyzed in this paper. The results show that the efficiency of controlling inflation in developing countries does not change a lot. Furthermore, autonomy of monetary and fiscal policies, exchange rate elasticity, and financial stability has a significant effect on efficiency of controlling inflation. Financial development affects efficiency of controlling inflation by the virtue of policy transmitting efficiency, but economic opening up has an insignificant effect on efficiency. Because of rapidly financial development and effective financial management, the policy transmitting efficiency in China is the highest in the developing countries. In order to promote efficiency of controlling inflation in China in the future, the autonomy of monetary and fiscal policies should be enhanced, and exchange rate elasticity should be promoted.