我国股票和房地产市场的财富效应研究——基于状态空间模型的实证分析

运用状态空间模型和脉冲响应函数考量我国股票和房地产市场的财富效应进行了时变特征研究,结果表明,目前我国股票市场长期内具有稳定的微弱负向财富效应,而房地产市场长期内存在稳定的正向财富效应,房地产市场的财富效应要大于股票市场。同时,2011年末的欧债危机,对于这两种市场财富效应的影响十分微弱。鉴此,应逐步增加居民股票收益,保持房地产市场价格的平稳运行,努力提高居民收入水平。

The Wealth Effect of Stock Market and Real Estate Market in China: An Empirical Study Based on the State Space Model

In the paper, the state space model and impulse response functions have been used to analyses the time-varying characteristics of the wealth effect of stock market and real estate market. It is found that in the long term the stock market has the stability of tiny negative wealth effect, and the estate market has the stable positive wealth effect. The wealth effect of real estate is larger than the stock. At the same time, the outbreak of European debt crisis at the end of 2011 almost has no effect to these two kinds of markets'' wealth effect. At last, the policy recommendations have been put forward about gradually increase stock returns of dweller, maintain operation about the real estate market price smoothly, and strive to improve the income level of resident.