美国经济波动影响中国经济的国际传导机制分析

作为世界上最大经济体的美国,其经济波动必然会对其它国家产生影响。利用1999—2009年的季度数据,运用向量自回归(VAR)模型以及H—P滤波分析法,研究发现:中国对美国出口贸易对中美经济波动经过半年的传导时滞后,会有明显的传导作用,并且大约持续一年半左右,之后的传导作用并不明显;中国从美国进口贸易对中美经济波动的传导作用会有一年的传导时滞,之后会有为期半年的传导作用,但其传导作用明显低于中国对美国出口贸易的传导作用;美国对华直接投资和中国对美直接投资对中美经济波动的传导作用无论在短期还是在长期都不显著。

International Transmission of American Economic Fluctuations Effecting on Chinese Economy

The economic fluctuation of the United States,the world′s largest economy,has a significant impact on many countries.Basing on the quarterly data in 1999-2009 and the Vector Autoregressive model(VAR),we reach these conclusions: China′s exports to the U.S.trade has obvious conduction in the China-US economic fluctuations,but there will be the conduction delay of half a year,its significant conduction time is about one and a half years,and the later conduction is not obvious;In China-US economic fluctuations conduction of China import from U.S.,there will be a delay of one year,after which there will be a conduction period of six months,but the transmission is significantly lower than the conduction of China′s exports to U.S.;The transmission function of U.S.direct investment in China and China′s direct investment in U.S.are not significant in both the long term and the short term.