石家庄区域农业循环经济发展的灰色关联分析

目的]通过构建一套适用于区域农业循环经济发展的评价指标体系,利用灰色关联分析对区域农业循环经济的发展水平进行综合评价。方法]采用AHP方法构建区域农业循环经济发展评价指标体系,进一步采用灰色关联分析法构建区域农业循环经济发展评价模型,对石家庄2000~2015年的农业循环经济发展水平进行了评价。结果]从发展评价结果来看可以划分为3个阶段,即缓慢下滑阶段(2000~2004年)、快速下滑阶段(2005~2008年)和快速上升阶段(2009~2015年)。从各类指标灰色关联度数值变化情况来看可将其划分为2种类型:(1)包括农业经济发展和农业产出等2类指标,其关联度数值都呈快速增长态势;(2)包括资源减量投入、资源循环利用以及生态环境等3类指标,其历年灰色关联度数值变化均具有先减小再增大的特点。结论]石家庄农业循环经济发展的整体水平不高,并呈现"U"型特征。

THE GRAY RELATIONAL ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL CIRCULAR ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT IN SHIJIAZHUANG

This paper built a regional economic appraisal system of agricultural development cycleusing Delphi method, established a regional agricultural recycling economy evaluation modelbased on gray correlation analysis method, and analyzed horizontal agricultural circular economyin Shijiazhuang in 2000~2015. The results showed that the overall level of agricultural recycling economy development was not high, showing a "U" type feature.The level can be divided into three stages: slow down phase (2000~ 2004year), the rapid decline phase (2005~ 2008year) and the fast rising phase (2009~2015year). From a variety of indicators gray relational degree, it can be divided into two types: i.e., the indicators of economic development and agricultural output, and three indicators of reducing resources input, recycling utilization of resources, and ecological environment. It concluded that the overall level of agricultural recycling economy development in Shijiazhuang was not high.