Developments of the German Heat Market of Private Households Until 2030: A Simulation Based Analysis

The paper at hand studies the future development of the German heat market of private households until 2030 using a microeconomic simulation model developed by the authors. The model simulates the development of insulation measures and installed heating systems in the building stock, thereby incorporating a discrete choice model to represent the household decisions for heating systems. Because of the long lifetime of heating systems, the residential heating market adopts slowly. Natural gas fired burners still remain the most important heating system until 2030 whereas fuel oil technologies further lose market shares. Final energy consumption is projected to decrease by about 20?% between 2010 and 2030 primarily due to modernization of heating systems and therefore a higher fuel efficiency. Accordingly, sectoral greenhouse gas emissions will decrease by 24?%.