中国经济增长形势分析

一今年是世纪之交的一年。研究当前经济形势,不能不对本世纪最后10年的经济运行作一个回顾。90年代我国经济是从对80年代后期一段过热进行治理过程中出现的低谷起步的。ＧＤＰ年增长率从1990年38%谷底,迅速上升到1992年142%的高峰之后,自1993年起平稳回落到1999年的71%,已经连续下降了7年之久。在我国经济增长的11次波动、在改革开放后的4次波动中,这次经济增长速度的下滑时间是最长的一次,平均每年回落1个百分点。对于这7年经济增长速度的下降应当怎么看?不能一概而论,要划分前后两个阶段来看。前一个阶段是1993年到1996年,针对1992—1993…

An Analysis of China's Economic Growth Situation

In the 1990s China's economy started on the base of a low growth rate which was produced during the rectification of the overheated economy in the late 1980s.The annual growth rate of GDP rose rapidly from 3 8 percent(the lowest point) in 1990 to 14 2 percent(the highest point) in 1992.Up to 1993 when the growth rate fell steadily to 7 1 percent in 1999,a continuous decrease was recorded for 7 years.Thanks to the expansionary policy which the Chinese government put into action in 1997 with the purpose to create modestly loose conditions based on the steady fall of the growth rate,the development of China's economy still remained in the high rank with regard to the speed in the world.This contributed a lot to the stabilization of the economy in East Asia and in the world.In the fature it will be a very attractive perspective,if China's economy at an average growth rate of 7—8 percent at the start of the 21st century could produce an effect better than that produced by the growth at a rate of about 10 percent in the past and provide more jobs.According to the medium and long term plan of economic development,China's GDP will be doubled in the first 10 years of the coming century.It means that the average growth rate will be 7 2 percent per year,This is a relatively realistic consideration.