内蒙古玉米干旱风险区划方法研究

针对目前内蒙古地区农业保险业的现实需求,特别是农业可持续发展、农业防灾减灾等的重大科技需求,急需开展农业气象灾害影响评估技术服务,实现对农业气象灾害风险的定量分析和动态评估。为了填补内蒙古干旱风险区划研究的空白,文章针对内蒙古玉米的作物特性进行研究,利用119个气象站点1960~2013年的温度、降水、日照、相对湿度、风速等观测资料,综合考虑了致灾因子和承载体的地域特性,建立了内蒙古玉米气候区划、气象干旱、农业干旱、气候生产潜力、气候适宜性5个方面的干旱风险评估指标。利用GIS的空间分析功能,对各指标进行重分类和叠置分析,确定内蒙古玉米干旱风险动态评估分级指标体系,对内蒙古2011~2013年玉米干旱进行了风险评估模拟。评估结果与内蒙古2011~2013年玉米实际年景十分相符,证明了该风险区划方法在内蒙古地区的可行性,可以为有关部门控制农业气象灾害的发生、防御或减轻灾害对农业生产的危害、制定救灾措施、农业灾害保险政策、进行风险转移提供科学依据,进而最大限度地减轻灾害造成的不利影响。

THE CORN DROUGHT RISK ZONE METHODS IN INNER MONGOLIA

Aiming at the needs of agricultural insurance in Inner Mongolia region, especially the science and technology needs of agricultural sustainable development, agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation in Inner Mongolia region, it urgently needs to carry out the technical service of agricultural meteorological disaster impact assessment, and to quantitatively analyze the agricultural meteorological disaster risk. Taking the corn as research object, this paper established the assessment index from five aspects including corn climatic regionalization, meteorological drought, agricultural drought, climate production potential and climate suitability using observation data such as temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and sunshine from 1960 to 2013 obtained from 119 weather stations in Inner Mongolia. And then, it determined the classification indexes of corn drought risk dynamic evaluation based on the analysis and classification of the indexes using the GIS spatial analysis function,and assessed corn drought risk from 2011 to 2013. The results showed that the assessment was consistent to the actual times in Inner Mongolia that proved the feasibility of this risk zoning method in Inner Mongolia region.The research results of the assessment can provide the scientific basis for the decision of the relevant departments, such as control of agrometeorological disasters happen, defense, or reducing the harm of disasters on agricultural production, disaster relief measures, agricultural disaster insurance policy, risk transfer, etc. and hence can maximum alleviate the adverse effect caused by disasters.