美韩FTA对中国出口的贸易替代效应研究

美国和韩国于2007年6月正式签署了自由贸易协定。两国都是中国重要的出口市场,中美和中韩出口结构存在一定的竞争性。美韩FTA将会使中国出口产品面临相对较高的关税,差异性的关税可能使美国市场上中国出口产品被韩国替代,同时,韩国市场上中国出口产品也可能被美国替代。本文考察了三国HS2位编码产品的国际竞争力和平均实施关税,以定量估计美韩FTA对中国造成的贸易替代效应。结果表明,在美国市场上,中国的纺织品和服装出口将受到明显影响;在韩国市场上,中国农产品和工业品出口都会受到不同程度影响,且受影响的产品种类较多。

Trade Substitution Effect of US-Korea FTA on China's Exports

The United States and Korea concluded the FTA in June 2007. Both countries are major export markets for China. There is direct competition between China and either of the two parties in their markets. China's exports will face relatively higher tariffs in the US and Korea compared with those from the FTA parties. Consequently, China's exports will possibly be substituted by Kore- an ones in the US market and by US ones in the Korean market. The paper examines the relative competitiveness of Chinese products to US and Korean ones as well as applied tariff rates in both parties based on HS-2 to estimate the trade substitution effect of US-Korea FTA on various sectors of China. The result shows that in the US market, Chinese textiles and apparel will be significantly substituted by Korean ones, while in the Korean market, a number of Chinese agricultural and industrial products will be negatively affected.