中国城市房地产市场健康标准及实证研究

准确判断房地产市场健康状况是正确实施房地产调控的前提,但国内外并没有一套判断房地产市场健康状况系统的工具,因而关于房地产的发展形势常常引起争议.论文试图从房地产市场与城市总体经济之间合理关系出发,设计一组指标体系,利用房地产与宏观经济对应的相关历史和整体的数据,建立46个经验模型,求得一套房地产市场的多维度健康标准.将健康标准值与城市的实际值进行比对发现:35个大中城市房地产市场均不健康.同时实证研究也较好地验证了研究思路的正确性和健康标准的可信性.

Theory and Empirical Analysis on the Healthy of China Urban Real Estate Market

In order to regulate the real estate market properly,one has to estimate its health correctly.However,there still have not been a series of standards to evaluate its health;so many bifurcations exist on real estate market.The purpose of this paper is to establish a health standard system of real estate market.The author first analyzes what a sound relationship between real estate market and urban macro-economics should be,and then designs an index system.Finally,the author sets up 46 empirical models and wo...