基于政策工具视角的多主体绿色施肥行为决策研究

[目的]为加快推进化肥减量增效，探索政府应用信息传递型、激励型及控制型3类政策工具对农户及农业社会化服务组织绿色施肥行为的动态影响机制，为构建高效施肥调控政策体系提供理论支撑。[方法]文章基于演化博弈理论，以黑龙江省为例，应用matlab2016b软件进行数值仿真分析，以得出不同水平政策工具组合下农户与农业社会化服务组织绿色施肥策略变动过程。[结果]（1）政府、农户及农业社会化服务组织在推进化肥减量增效方面存在动态博弈关系，科学合理地制定施肥调控政策是协调三方利益冲突的关键。（2） 3类政策工具中，高水平的信息传递型工具对各主体绿色施肥行为的刺激效果最佳，而组合应用信息传递型与激励型工具对主体行为的推动作用更稳定，同时应用3类工具则更能全面构建起化肥减量增效的良性循环。[结论]政府应重视农户及农业社会化服务组织在推进化肥减量增效方面的主体作用，及时开展施肥调控工作；根据各主体的个体特征与政策需求差异化地制定政策内容，着重应用信息传递型政策工具，必要时与激励型、控制型工具组合应用以获取叠加效应，推行绿色施肥。

INVESTIGATION ON DECISION-MAKING OF MULTI-AGENT GREEN FERTILIZATION BEHAVIOR BASED ON THE PERSPECTIVE OF POLICY INSTRUMENTS

In order to accelerate the reduction of amount and the enhancement of efficiency of chemical fertilizer applications, the dynamic influence mechanism of information transfer, incentive and control policy instruments applied by the government on the green fertilization behavior of farmers and agricultural socialized service organizations is explored, which can provide theoretical supports for the construction of efficient fertilization regulation policy system. Taking Heilongjiang province as an example, and based on evolutionary game theory, matlab 2016b software was used to conduct numerical simulation analysis, so as to obtain the changing process of green fertilization strategy of farmers and agricultural socialized service organizations under different levels of policy instrument combinations. The results were listed as follows. There was a dynamic game relationship between the government, farmers and agricultural socialized service organizations in the process of implementation of green fertilization. The key to coordinate the conflicts of interests among those three identities was to formulate fertilization regulation policies scientifically and rationally. Among the three types of policy instruments, the information transfer instrument in high level exerted the best stimulating effect on the green fertilization behavior of each subject, while the combination of information transfer and incentive instrument had a more stable promoting effect on the behavior of each subject, and the application of the three types of instruments at the same time could more comprehensively build a virtuous cycle of reduction of amount and enhancement of efficiency of fertilizer application. Therefore, the government should pay attention to the main role of farmers and agricultural socialized service organizations in promoting fertilizer application amount reduction and efficiency enhancement, and carry out fertilization regulation in time. According to the individual characteristics and policy needs of each subject, the policy content should be differentiated, and the policy instrument of information transmission should be emphasized, when necessary, the combination with incentive and control instruments should be applied to obtain the superposition effect and promote green fertilization.