基于地理探测器的内蒙古耕地水资源短缺时空变化特征及驱动力分析

目的]明晰干旱半干旱区耕地水资源短缺的时空变化特征及驱动因素,是实现区域水资源可持续利用的首要前提,对保障区域乃至全国粮食安全和生态健康有着重要意义。方法]文章以内蒙古为典型研究区,以水足迹理论为依据,通过构建耕地水资源短缺指数（Arable Land Water Scarcity Index,AWSI）,分析2000—2018年内蒙古耕地水资源短缺指数时空格局及变化特征,并进一步借助地理探测器模型定量揭示研究区内气候、植被、地形、人口密度等11个自然和社会经济因素对耕地水资源短缺时空变化的影响差异。结果]（1）内蒙古耕地水资源短缺指数总体呈西高东低的分布特征,西部耕地缺水压力较大。2000—2018年内蒙古耕地水资源短缺指数呈增加趋势,增加区域占总面积82%以上,主要分布在东部和中部地区。（2）自然因素主要决定内蒙古耕地水资源短缺的空间格局,其影响明显大于社会经济因素,但是2000—2018年社会经济因素的影响力在呈增大趋势。（3）自然因素中以蒸发量、年均温、降水量为主的气候因子在生态探测中共有19组显著差异,占据了影响因子中的主导地位。而在社会经济因素与自然因素的交互作用下,...

SPATIO-TEMPORAL CHANGE CHARACTERISTICS AND DRIVING FACTORS OF CULTIVATED LAND WATER SHORTAGE IN INNER MONGOLIA BASED ON THE GEOGRAPHIC DETECTOR MODEL

Clarifying the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of water scarcity for arable land in arid and semi-arid regions is the primary prerequisite for achieving sustainable water resources utilization, and is of great significance for ensuring regional or national food security and ecological health. By taking Inner Mongolia as a study area, the Arable Land Water Scarcity Index (AWSI) was constructed to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns and changing characteristics of the AWSI in Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2018 based on the water footprint theory. In addition, the impacts of climate, vegetation, topography, population density, and other factors on AWSI were further revealed quantitatively by using geographic detector model. The results were showed as follows. (i) the AWSI in Inner Mongolia is generally high in the west and low in the east, and the water scarcity pressure on arable land is higher in the west. The AWSI in Inner Mongolia shows an increasing trend from 2000 to 2018, accounting for more than 82% of the total area, and the increasing area mainly locates in the eastern and central regions. (ii) The results of factor detection reveal that natural factors, such as evapotranspiration and temperature generally determine the spatial pattern of water scarcity on arable land in Inner Mongolia, and their influences are significantly greater than those from socio-economic factors (settlement rate, population density, etc.), but the influences of socio-economic factors exhibit a rising trend during 2000-2018. (iii) Among the natural factors, climatic factors, mainly including evapotranspiration, mean annual temperature and precipitation, have 19 sets of significant differences in the ecological surveys and dominate the influencing factors. Under the interaction of socio-economic factors and natural factors, the influences show mutual or non-linear enhancement, indicating that the causes of water shortage changes on arable land in Inner Mongolia become more complex. Due to the uneven spatial distribution of agricultural water shortage and the intensification of the conflict between supply and demand, to increase water-saving facilities and adjust the cropping structure become an important issue for the sustainable use of agricultural water resources in Inner Mongolia in the future.