On loss functions and ranking forecasting performances of multivariate volatility models |
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Authors: | Sé bastien Laurent,Jeroen V.K. Rombouts,Francesco Violante |
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Affiliation: | 1. Maastricht University, The Netherlands;2. Université catholique de Louvain (CORE), Belgium;3. ESSEC Business School, Avenue B. Hirsch, 95021 Cergy-Pontoise Cedex, France |
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Abstract: | The ranking of multivariate volatility models is inherently problematic because when the unobservable volatility is substituted by a proxy, the ordering implied by a loss function may be biased with respect to the intended one. We point out that the size of the distortion is strictly tied to the level of the accuracy of the volatility proxy. We propose a generalized necessary and sufficient functional form for a class of non-metric distance measures of the Bregman type which ensure consistency of the ordering when the target is observed with noise. An application to three foreign exchange rates is provided. |
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Keywords: | C10 C32 C51 C52 C53 G10 |
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