电力消费和经济增长：来自中国的证据

对1971—2009年中国人均实际GDP和人均耗电量的Zivot-Andrews单位根检验表明,两序列都是带有结构突变的趋势平稳过程,所以,采用两种方法检验两者间的因果关系:基于VAR的Dolado-Lütkepo检验,和基于去势数据的Granger因果检验。两种检验都取得了从人均耗电量到人均实际GDP的单向因果关系的有力证据。这意味着电力供应对满足日益增长的用电量,从而维持中国经济增长是至关重要的。

Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from China

Both of the series of electricity consumption per capita and real GDP per capita in China were found to be a stationary process around a structural break during the period of 1979-2009 by the Zivot and Andrews test.Thus,two different methodologies have been employed to test the Granger causality between the two series: the Dolado-Lütkepohl test using the VARs in levels,and the standard Granger causality test using the detrended data.Both of the results have yielded a strong evidence for unidirectional causality running from the electricity consumption to the income.This indicates that the supply of electricity is vitally important to meet the growing electricity consumption,hence to sustain the economic growth in China.