| 社会保障支出的就业效应：基于VAR模型的实证分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 谭伟. 社会保障支出的就业效应：基于VAR模型的实证分析[J]. 兰州商学院学报, 2011, 27(6): 18-22,39 |
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| 作者姓名： | 谭伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 重庆三峡学院公共管理学院,重庆,404000 |
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| 基金项目： | 重庆市社会科学规划项目重庆市新型农村社会养老保险制度实施效果评价及完善路径研究 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用1978—2009年的时间序列数据,通过建立向量自回归模型（VAR）对社会保障支出与就业之间的动态关系进行了实证分析。研究表明,社会保障支出与就业之间存在长期协整关系,两者互为因果;脉冲响应分析结果进一步表明,社会保障支出的增加对就业增长有长期显著的促进作用,社会保障支出每增加1%,就业增长0.041%。
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| 关 键 词： | 社会保障支出 就业 向量自回归 |
The Empiricak Analysis about the Effect of Social Security Spending on Employment:Based on VAR Model |
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| TAN Wei. The Empiricak Analysis about the Effect of Social Security Spending on Employment:Based on VAR Model[J]. Journal of Lanzhou Commercial College, 2011, 27(6): 18-22,39 |
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| Authors: | TAN Wei |
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| Affiliation: | TAN Wei(Institute of Public Affairs,Chongqing Three Gorges University,Chongqing 404000,China) |
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| Abstract: | By the time-series data of 1978 to 2009,this paper gave an empirical analysis about the dynamic effect of social security spending on employment with VAR model.The research showed:there was a long co-integration relationship between social security spending and employment,and both they are the cause;the pulse response analysis further suggested the results that the increase of social security spending could significantly promote the growth of employment,and social security spending increased by 1%,the emplo... |
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| Keywords: | social security spending employment VAR |
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