进攻崇拜:一个理论神话的破灭

攻防理论认为,第一次世界大战前的军事技术发展有利于防御,但欧洲大国却误判为进攻主导,因此它们均采取进攻性战略,并导致一战的悲剧性爆发。事实并非如此。一战前的德国军事家十分认真地研究过新型武器的防御效果,承认它们会形成战术层面上的防御主导,但他们否认这是不可逾越的障碍,并致力于通过战术和战略创新来恢复进攻的可能。因此,战术层面上的防御占优会增加战争的难度和参战国的成本,但绝不会使发动战争在军事上变得不可能。攻防理论中暗含的军事技术决定战争爆发论的失败就在于它忽视了武器与人相结合的困难,想当然地简化了军事技术与军事组织相结合的过程。实际上,军事技术只是一种结构性限制框架,并不直接或必然驱使国家采取适应某种军事战略。人类可以发挥主观能动性来克服武器的防御特性,从而恢复进攻的可能性。战争从来就是敌我双方智慧与力量的博弈,绝非由某一类武器决定。

Smashing a Myth:Why There Was No Cult of the Offensive in Imperial German Army

The Offense-Defense theory argues that the European powers misperceived offense-defense balance as offense dominance which was actually favored in defense by the development of military technologies before the First World War; thus,the governments adopted offensive strategy and the World War broke out. But this was not true. The German militarists had carefully evaluated the comprehensive offensive and defensive effects of the military technologies; acknowledged they would lead to a kind of defense dominanc...