| Size and Characteristic of Housing Bubbles in China＇s Major Cities： 1999-2010 |
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| 作者姓名： | Huayi Yu |
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| 作者单位： | Lecturer, Department of Land and Real Estate Management, School of Public Administration, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China. |
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| 基金项目： | This work was supported by thc National Natural Science Foundation of China （No. 71173223）, the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities and the Research Funds of Renmin University of China （No. 10XNF049）. |
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| 摘 要： |
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| 关 键 词： | 房地产泡沫 大城市 中国 特性 采样间隔 大中城市 实证分析 气泡 |
Size and Characteristic of Housing Bubbles in China＇s Major Cities： 1999-2010 |
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| Huayi Yu.Size and Characteristic of Housing Bubbles in China＇s Major Cities： 1999-2010[J].China & World Economy,2011,19(6):56-75. |
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| Authors: | China ＆ World Economy |
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| Institution: | Lecturer, Department of Land and Real Estate Management, School of Public Administration, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China. Email: rucyhy@163.com. |
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| Abstract: | There is some disagreement in the published literature regarding the definition and the measurement of housing bubbles in China. Extending the analytical framework of Black et al. (2006), the present paper measures the housing bubbles of China's 35 major cities from the second quarter of 1999 to the second quarter of 2010. The results indicate that the housing bubbles in China's 35 major cities were relatively small in the sample interval, but the bubbles in eastern metropolises, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Ningbo, have been relatively big since 2005. The changing tendency of housing bubbles in most cities highly corresponds with the changes in real estate policies. This paper decomposes the housing bubbles of the 35 cities, and finds a great proportion of irrational bubbles rather than rational intrinsic bubbles generated by price speculation. Based on empirical analysis, this paper proposes policy recommendations for preventing the generation and expansion of housing bubbles. |
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| Keywords: | China＇s major cities housing bubbles characteristic of bubbles |
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