Forecasting U.S. car sales and car registrations in Japan: Rationality, accuracy and herding |
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| Authors: | Christian Pierdzioch Jan-Christoph Rülke Georg Stadtmann |
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| Institution: | aHelmut-Schmidt-University, Department of Economics, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, 22008 Hamburg, Germany;bDepartment of Economics, WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management, Burgplatz 2, 56179 Vallendar, Germany;cUniversity of Southern Denmark, Department of Business and Economics, Campusvej 55, 5230 Odense M, Denmark;dEuropa-Universität Viadrina, Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insb. Makroökonomik, Postfach 1786, 15207 Frankfurt (Oder), Germany |
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| Abstract: | We analyze forecasts of car sales in the U.S. and forecasts of car registrations in Japan. We document a substantial heterogeneity of forecasts, and we show that, based on traditional criteria, forecasts are neither rational nor unbiased. We also report that forecasters anti-herd, that is, forecasters seem to intentionally scatter their forecasts around a consensus forecast. We further show that cross-sectional heterogeneity of forecasts with regard to anti-herding transmits onto cross-sectional heterogeneity of forecast accuracy. Specifically, we document that forecasters who herd provide more accurate forecasts than their colleagues who anti-herd. |
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| Keywords: | JEL classification: L62 D84 E27 |
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