加入WTO后中国第三产业增速变缓的原因解析

本文首先通过数据和事实证明了加入WTO对中国产业发展的影响与库兹涅茨事实矛盾,突出表现为第三产业贡献率的增速变缓,同时,衡量产业结构变动的Moore值变小,第二产业的增速超过了第三产业,并且越是经济发达和人均收入高的地区,第三产业占比的增长越慢。随后,本文从理论和实证两个方面对这一现象的成因进行了探讨,认为加入WTO带来的比较优势与规模效应、产业结构变迁对加入WTO的路径依赖和变迁粘性、外商直接投资的流入结构和方向、我国在国际产业分工中的位置以及加入WTO加剧的产业集聚与区域发展不均衡等是导致经济增长与三次产业增速变化背离的主要原因。随后基于Chow突变点的实证检验和省域差异分析也全面支持了这一结论。最后,文章提出了相应的政策建议。

The Research On the Causes of Contribution Rate from China's Tertiary Industry which Slows Down After China's WTO Entry

Through the data and the fact,The article had proven that there is contradictory between the China′s industry development and the Kuznets Effect after China′s WTO entry.The Moore value becomes small,the tertiary industry′s contribution rate slows down,the increase of the second industrial has surpassed the tertiary industry,and the more developed areas,the more slower of the increase of the tertiary industry.What are the reasons? Based on theoretical and empirical analysis,the main reasons are involved: comparative advantages and the scale effect,path dependence and the inertia of structural changes,FDI inflow,China′s position in international industrial division,industrial clustering and unbalanced regional development.The empirical analysis also supports this conclusion.