论人民币国际化的两难选择

中国依靠引进外资成功实现了资本转移型经济崛起。尽管从长期来看,中国经济的崛起要求人民币成为国际货币,但是,就短期而言,作为人民币国际化必要条件的资本项目开放,有可能通过对汇率的影响,削弱中国经济崛起的潜力,从而削弱人民币国际化的基础。鉴于这一可能性,中国不得不推后资本项目的开放时间,这一选择必然会延迟人民币国际化进程。以上矛盾构成了中国在经济崛起和人民币国际化问题上面临的两难选择。以上矛盾也反映在人民银行的人民币国际化政策上。一方面,鉴于经济崛起对人民币国际化的要求,人民银行正在积极推进跨境贸易人民币结算;但是,另一方面,为了保持汇率稳定和顺利推进资本转移型经济崛起,人民银行又不得不严格限制资本项下的人民币交易。这一政策表明,中国推进的人民币国际化战略是渐进式、局部国际化战略,这一战略决定了人民币国际化是一个渐进的过程。

On the Dilemma of RMB Internationalization

China has been succeeding in the economic rising,which relies on the introduction of foreign investment.In the long run,despite the fact that the economic rising of China will promote the process of RMB internationalization,but in the short term,as one necessary condition for the RMB internationalization,the opening policy of the capital account may undermine the China′s economic rising by accelerating RMB appreciation,which will hinder the internationalization of the RMB.In view of this possibility,the Chinese government has to postpone opening process of the capital account.This policy will inevitably delay the process of internationalization of the RMB.The contradiction makes the dilemma for the internationalization of the RMB.