环境管制与外资区位分布的实证分析——基于中国1985-2004年数据的协整分析与格兰杰因果检验

从理论上看,环境管制与外资区位分布之间的关系一直存在着较大的争议;从实践上看,我国近年来环境污染问题日趋严重,且各地区的环境管制水平呈现出明显的差异。本文通过采用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验,对中国东部、中部和西部地区的环境规制与外资分布之间的关系进行了实证分析,并得出如下结论:东部地区的环境规制与吸引外资之间存在着稳定的正相关关系,而中部地区和西部地区则表现为明显的负相关关系。同时,环境规制不是引起外资变化的格兰杰原因,但外资是引起环境规制变化的格兰杰原因。

An Empirical Analysis on Environmental Regulation and FDI Location——Co-integration and Granger Test Based on China''''s Data of 1985-2004

There is a great dispute regarding the relationship between environment regulation and FDI location in theory, but in fact the environment in China is worsening in recent years, and the level of environmental regulation has great difference in different areas. This paper attempts to study the correlation between FDI inflows and respective environmental regulation in the eastern, central and western China by Co-integration analysis as well as Granger test. We find that environmental regulation has a positive effect on FDI in eastern China while it plays a negative role in attracting FDI inflows in the central and western China. In addition, our findings imply that environmental regulation is not Granger-cause fluctuations in FDI inflows whereas FDI Granger-causes changes in environmental regulations.