我国对外贸易商品结构和方式与经济增长的相关性比较

改革开放以来,我国的对外贸易和经济增长都取得了令人瞩目的成就,但不同的对外贸易商品结构和方式对我国经济增长的影响是不同的。本文运用协整和格兰杰因果检验方法对我国的进出口贸易、投入品和消费品贸易、一般贸易和加工贸易与我国经济增长的相关关系进行了比较分析。结果表明:第一,我国的对外贸易、进口贸易、出口贸易都与经济增长呈正相关关系,但进口贸易对经济增长的推动作用更大,而且进口还是推动我国出口的重要原因;第二,我国投入品的进口和出口以及消费品的出口都与经济增长呈正相关关系,但投入品的进口对经济增长的推动作用更大,而消费品的进口对经济增长有负面影响;第三,我国一般贸易和加工贸易都与经济增长呈正相关关系,但一般贸易对经济增长的推动作用比加工贸易要显著得多。

A Comparative Research on the Co-relationship between Chinese Economic Growth and Foreign Trade Goods Structure and Mode

China has made a tremendous success on foreign trade and economic growth since its reform and opening-up, but it is noticed that different trade goods structures and modes of foreign trade have different impact on China's economic growth. This paper analyses the co-relationship between the economic growth and some factors such as volume of foreign trade, trade of inputs and consumer goods, general trade and processing trade by using cointegrating regression and Granger test and causality. The results indicates that: Firstly, there is a positive co-relationship between the economic growth and volume of foreign trade, imports and exports, and imports'impact on economic growth is the greatest; Secondly, importing and exporting of inputs and exporting of consumer goods have a positive effect on economic growth, and the effect of importing of inputs is greater; Finally, the general trade and the processing trade have a positive co-relationship with the economic growth, and the effect of general trade is greater.