城镇住宅用地供应与人口变化的时空协调性研究——以湖南省14个市州为例

采用Tapio方法和区位熵法,分别构建住宅用地供求的脱钩指数和空间供求结构指数,测度2009-2017年湖南省14个市州住宅用地供应与人口变化的时序协调性和空间协调性。结果发现:全省住宅用地供应与城镇人口增长存在时序不协调,除长沙市、邵阳市和岳阳市住宅用地供应与人口增速属于扩张性挂钩外,其它城市均表现为扩张相对负脱钩,甚至部分市州在2010年出现绝对负脱钩。不同市州的不同类型的住宅用地(普通商品房和安居工程用地)供应与人口变化存在不同程度的空间分配失调。

Space-Time Coordination of Residential Land Supply and Urban Population Change: Evidence from 14 Cities in Hunan Province

To measure the space-time coordination of changes in population change and residential land supply among 14 cities of Hunan province from 2009 to 2017, this research constructs the decoupling index and the spatial coordinate index of residential land supply and demand by utilizing Tapio method and location entropy method. The results show that: there is a timing imbalance between the residential land supply and the urban population growth. Except for the expansion of residential land supply and population growth in Changsha, Shaoyang and Yueyang cities, other cities are characterized by a relatively negative decoupling of expansion. Even some cities and states showed an absolute negative decoupling in 2010; different types of residential land (i.e. common commercial housing land and housing project land) supply and population change in different cities and states have different levels of spatial distribution disorder. Among them, the spatial non-coordination of the residential land supply and the ordinary commercial housing supply in each city in 2011 was more serious than that in other years. In 2017, the spatial coordination of land for housing projects in various cities and states was more serious.